Q4 2025
Nashville Commercial Real Estate Market Report
Focus: Q4 2025 Market Trends
Executive Summary
The Nashville commercial real estate (CRE) market is approaching a pivotal stabilization point in late 2025, driven by rapid population growth and a "flight to quality" across sectors [1, 4]. The Office sector sees steady demand for trophy assets despite ample availability from new development [3]. Industrial markets remain tight for small-to-mid-size tenants, though overall vacancy has ticked up due to new deliveries [5, 6]. Retail is exceptionally strong, with vacancy rates below 4% and robust rent growth fueled by limited supply [1, 4]. Multifamily is digesting a record supply wave, with occupancy stabilizing and rent growth expected to return as construction slows [2, 8].
TenantBase Proprietary Data [12] highlights the distribution of active tenant demand over the last 90 days (225 total deals):
- Retail/Storefront dominated market activity with 56.00% of all searches [12].
- Warehouse was the second most active sector at 26.22% [12].
- Office accounted for 18.22% of total search volume [12].
Office Market
Market Overview Nashville's office market is characterized by a continued shift toward premium assets, with trophy properties significantly outperforming the broader market [3].
- Vacancy & Availability: While overall availability remains elevated due to new development, trophy availability dropped to 22.6%, signaling strong demand for top-tier space [3].
- Net Absorption: Leasing activity year-to-date reached 3.0 million SF, heavily concentrated in Class A+ and trophy assets as tenants prioritize amenities [3].
- Rental Rates: Asking rents for premium space continue to climb, with trophy rents increasing 6.5% year-over-year to $47.07 per SF [3].
- Market Drivers: The city's labor market and quality of life continue to attract corporate relocations, bolstering long-term demand despite short-term supply headwinds [3].
TenantBase Activity [12]
- Demand Share: Office accounted for 18.22% of total search volume [12].
- Lease Term Preference: Demand is heavily skewed toward short-term flexibility [12]:
- Less than one year: 51.52% of deals [12].
- 3-5 Years: 21.21% of deals [12].
- 2-3 Years: 15.15% of deals [12].
- Size Requirements: Tenants seeking shorter commitments prefer significantly smaller spaces. The average lower SF required for a Less than one year term is 586 SF, compared to 6,000 SF for a 3-5 Years term [12].
Industrial & Warehouse Market
Market Overview The Nashville industrial market is balancing steady demand with a wave of new supply, though conditions remain tight for smaller tenants [5, 6].
- Vacancy & Rent: The overall vacancy rate held steady at 6.2%, with smaller bay vacancy effectively much lower at 2.85% [5, 6]. Average NNN asking rents are approximately $9.81 per SF [5].
- Demand & Supply: Net absorption of 0.5 million SF outpaced 0.3 million SF of new deliveries in Q3, reflecting a healthy equilibrium [5].
- Construction: No new construction broke ground in Q3, which will help keep availability scarce and sustain upward pressure on rents in 2026 [5].
- Leasing Activity: Major leases included a 312,000 SF deal in Portland, TN, highlighting continued demand for logistics space [5].
TenantBase Activity [12]
- Demand Share: Warehouse accounted for 26.22% of total search volume [12].
- Lease Term Preference: Demand is strongest for mid-term leases [12]:
- 3-5 Years: 34.78% of deals [12].
- 2-3 Years: 21.74% of deals [12].
- 1-2 Years: 17.39% of deals [12].
- Size Requirements: The average lower SF required for a 3-5 Years term is 3,125 SF, while the 5+ Years term average requirement jumps to 30,625 SF [12].
Retail Market
Market Overview Retail is Nashville's tightest asset class, driven by rapid population growth and minimal new construction [1, 4].
- Vacancy & Availability: Vacancy remains exceptionally low at 3.6% - 3.7%, with availability even tighter in prime submarkets like Cool Springs and The Gulch [1, 4].
- Net Absorption: Despite a rare pullback in Q3 due to lack of space, demand remains robust with rapid lease-up times [1, 4].
- Rental Rates: Asking rents climbed 4.5% - 5.0% year-over-year, averaging roughly $30.00 per SF, as landlords maintain significant pricing power [1, 4].
- Investment: Sales volume reached $152 million in Q4, driven by private buyers targeting single-tenant net lease assets [4].
TenantBase Activity [12]
- Demand Share: Retail/Storefront activity dominated with 56.00% of all search volume [12].
- Lease Term Preference: Retail tenants show a healthy appetite for stability [12]:
- 3-5 Years: 25.68% of deals [12].
- 5+ Years: 25.68% of deals [12].
- Less than one year: 21.62% of deals [12].
- Top Locations: Tenant interest is highest in the following areas (deal counts) [12]:
- Nashville (City): 35 [12].
- Airport / Berry Hill / Brentwood: 11 [12].
- Franklin: 5 [12].
Multifamily Market
Market Overview The multifamily sector is stabilizing after a record supply wave, with occupancy holding firm and the construction pipeline shrinking [2, 8].
- Vacancy & Occupancy: Vacancy stabilized at 10.8% as the market absorbs the influx of 11,800 units delivered over the past two years [2, 8]. Stabilized occupancy is healthier at 94.2% [8].
- Rents: Rents have flattened or dipped slightly by 1.0% year-over-year, averaging $1,618 per unit, as concessions remain common during lease-up [2, 7].
- Construction: The active pipeline has dropped to 11,000 units, down from nearly 18,000 a year ago, setting the stage for tighter conditions in 2026 [2, 7].
- Investment: Sales pricing surged 24% to over $221,000 per unit, indicating strong investor confidence in the market's long-term trajectory [2].
2026 Outlook
Looking ahead to 2026, the Nashville market is poised for "gradual stabilization" and renewed growth.
- Multifamily Balance: As deliveries slow, the supply-demand gap will close, allowing vacancy to retreat to sub-8% levels and rent growth to reaccelerate [7, 8].
- Retail Strength: With limited new development, retail availability will remain scarce, sustaining rent growth and pushing development into mixed-use projects [1].
- Investment Pivot: Investors will continue to target newer vintage assets, with capital markets expected to thaw as interest rate clarity improves [8, 11].
Sources
- Matthews: Nashville, TN Retail Market Report Q3 2025
- Lee & Associates: 2025 Q3 Nashville, TN - Multifamily
- CBRE: Nashville Office Figures Report Q3 2025
- Matthews: Nashville, TN Retail Market Report Q4 2025
- Lee & Associates: Q3 2025 - Nashville, TN - Industrial
- Matthews: Nashville, TN Industrial Market Report Q3 2025
- MMG Real Estate Advisors: Nashville Q3 2025 Market Report
- Northmarq: Tapering Multifamily Supply Sets Stage for Improving Fundamentals in Nashville
- Avison Young: Nashville Retail Real Estate Market Reports
- KBC Advisors: Insights - Q2 2025 Nashville Market Report
- Markets Group: A New Dawn in Real Estate - 2026 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Outlook
- TenantBase Proprietary Market Data (Nashville - Last 90 Days)
Information in this report is aggregated from various third-party sources and synthesized using artificial intelligence and other research tools. While we believe these sources to be reliable, we cannot guarantee the absolute accuracy or completeness of the data. This report is intended for informational purposes to provide market insight and should be independently verified prior to any use in a real estate transaction or legal commitment.