Q4 2025
Orlando Commercial Real Estate Market Report
Focus: Q4 2025 Market Trends
Executive Summary
The Orlando commercial real estate (CRE) market in late 2025 is defined by a "recalibration" across key sectors, supported by sustained population growth and tourism recovery [1, 3]. The Office sector faces headwinds with vacancy inching upward, yet high-quality assets continue to push rents to historical highs [1, 4]. Industrial momentum has returned with positive absorption and stabilizing vacancy after a period of heavy supply [2, 3]. Retail remains a standout performer with vacancy rates below 4% and robust rent growth [5, 6]. Multifamily is digesting a record wave of completions, which has temporarily moderated rent gains, though long-term demand drivers remain intact [7, 8].
TenantBase Proprietary Data [11] highlights the distribution of active tenant demand over the last 90 days (306 total deals):
- Retail/Storefront dominated market activity with 59.15% of all searches [11].
- Warehouse was the second most active sector at 27.78% [11].
- Office accounted for 13.73% of total search volume [11].
Office Market
Market Overview Orlando's office market is navigating a challenging period of negative absorption, though a "flight to quality" is keeping Class A fundamentals relatively steady compared to the broader market [1, 4].
- Vacancy & Availability: The overall vacancy rate rose to 17.0% - 19.1% in Q3 2025, driven by corporate rightsizing and consolidation [1, 4].
- Net Absorption: The market recorded negative net absorption of approximately 107,511 SF in the third quarter, extending a pullback in tenant demand [1].
- Rental Rates: Despite rising vacancy, average asking rents hit a new all-time high of $26.64 - $28.12 per SF [1, 4]. Class A asking rates reached $27.58 per SF, reflecting the premium placed on modern, amenity-rich space [1].
- Market Drivers: Office-using employment remains resilient, up 0.8% year-over-year, helping to sustain demand for smaller, higher-quality footprints [1].
TenantBase Activity [11]
- Demand Share: Office accounted for 13.73% of total search volume [11].
- Lease Term Preference: Demand is heavily concentrated in short-term flexibility [11]:
- Less than one year: 39.47% of deals [11].
- 2-3 Years: 26.32% of deals [11].
- 3-5 Years: 21.05% of deals [11].
- Size Requirements: Tenants seeking flexibility require smaller spaces. The average lower SF required for a Less than one year term is 833 SF, compared to 1,857 SF for a 3-5 Years term [11].
Industrial & Warehouse Market
Market Overview The Orlando industrial market stabilized in Q3 2025, with a significant rebound in leasing activity helping to absorb new supply and tighten vacancy [2, 3].
- Vacancy & Rent: Vacancy tightened to 7.4% - 7.9%, decreasing from the previous quarter due to major move-ins [2, 3]. Asking rents averaged $10.55 - $11.18 per SF, reflecting a slight adjustment from peak pricing but remaining well above pre-pandemic levels [2, 3].
- Demand & Supply: Net absorption surged to over 1.5 million SF in Q3 2025, driven largely by Ryder Logistics occupying a 1.2 million SF facility [3]. Leasing activity year-to-date is up 62% compared to 2024 [3].
- Construction: The development pipeline has moderated to roughly 2.5 million SF, with developers shifting focus toward mid-bay projects rather than big-box distribution centers [2, 3].
TenantBase Activity [11]
- Demand Share: Warehouse accounted for 27.78% of total search volume [11].
- Lease Term Preference: Demand is balanced between short and mid-term options [11]:
- 3-5 Years: 31.71% of deals [11].
- 1-2 Years: 29.27% of deals [11].
- Less than one year: 9.76% of deals [11].
- Size Requirements: The average lower SF required for a 3-5 Years term is 2,446 SF, while the 5+ Years term average requirement jumps to 8,750 SF [11].
Retail Market
Market Overview Retail remains Orlando's tightest asset class, supported by strong tourism figures and one of the fastest-growing populations in the state [5, 6].
- Vacancy & Availability: The overall vacancy rate stands at a low 3.8%, with some submarkets like South Orange County reporting rates as low as 2.1% [5, 6].
- Net Absorption: The market has recorded positive net absorption of 643,000 SF over the last 12 months, driven by fitness centers and discount retailers backfilling space [5].
- Rental Rates: Average asking rents rose 4.5% year-over-year to $30.74 per SF, positioning Orlando as a top 10 market nationally for rent growth [5].
- Market Drivers: A lack of new high-quality construction is constraining expansion options, keeping competition high for existing prime spaces [5, 6].
TenantBase Activity [11]
- Demand Share: Retail/Storefront activity dominated with 59.15% of all search volume [11].
- Lease Term Preference: Retail tenants show a healthy appetite for longer commitments [11]:
- 3-5 Years: 35.63% of deals [11].
- 2-3 Years: 24.14% of deals [11].
- 5+ Years: 20.69% of deals [11].
- Top Locations: Tenant interest is highest in the following areas (deal counts) [11]:
- Orlando: 41 [11].
- Kissimmee: 14 [11].
- Altamonte Springs: 9 [11].
Multifamily Market
Market Overview The multifamily sector is working through a supply peak, with deliveries in 2024–2025 reaching historic levels, though construction starts have since plummeted [7, 8].
- Vacancy & Occupancy: Vacancy is estimated between 4.9% and 6%, trending downward as the market absorbs the recent wave of completions [8].
- Rents: Rent growth has returned to positive territory, rising 0.9% year-to-date, signaling that the market bottom has likely passed [7, 8].
- Construction: New construction starts have declined by nearly 50% year-over-year, which is expected to create a supply shortage by 2026 [7, 8].
- Investment: Multifamily sales volume reached its highest level since 2022 in Q3 2025, driven by renewed investor confidence in Sun Belt fundamentals [7].
2026 Outlook
Looking ahead to 2026, the Orlando market is positioned for renewed tightness as supply constraints take hold.
- Construction Slowdown: With starts down significantly across multifamily and industrial sectors, vacancy rates are projected to tighten sharply by late 2026 [3, 7].
- Rental Growth: As the pipeline clears, rent growth is expected to accelerate, particularly for multifamily and industrial assets in land-constrained submarkets [3, 8].
- Investment Focus: Investors will increasingly target "defensive" assets like grocery-anchored retail and well-located logistics facilities [10].
Sources
- Newmark: Orlando Office Market Overview Q3 2025
- Lee & Associates: Q3 2025 Orlando Industrial Market Report
- Avison Young: Orlando Industrial Market Report Q3 2025
- CBRE: Orlando Office Figures Q3 2025
- Cushman & Wakefield: Orlando Retail MarketBeat Q3 2025
- Marcus & Millichap: Orlando Retail Market Report Q3 2025
- Avison Young: US Multifamily Market Report Q3 2025
- CBRE: U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2025 - Multifamily
- Orlando Economic Partnership: Orlando MSA Market Update
- Markets Group: A New Dawn in Real Estate - 2026 Outlook
- TenantBase Proprietary Market Data (Orlando - Last 90 Days)
Information in this report is aggregated from various third-party sources and synthesized using artificial intelligence and other research tools. While we believe these sources to be reliable, we cannot guarantee the absolute accuracy or completeness of the data. This report is intended for informational purposes to provide market insight and should be independently verified prior to any use in a real estate transaction or legal commitment.