Q4 2025
Northern & Central New Jersey Commercial Real Estate Market Report
Focus: Q4 2025 Market Trends
Executive Summary
The Northern and Central New Jersey commercial real estate (CRE) market is characterized by signs of stabilization and cautious optimism as it approaches 2026 [1, 4]. The Office sector is seeing positive net absorption for the first time in recent quarters, driven by a persistent "flight to quality" into Class A assets [1]. Industrial fundamentals are balancing out; while vacancy sits near decade highs due to recent supply deliveries, leasing velocity has rebounded significantly [4, 5]. Retail remains the tightest sector with vacancy rates below 4% in core counties, while Multifamily faces moderate rent deceleration as it absorbs a final wave of post-pandemic supply [6, 7].
TenantBase Proprietary Data [9] highlights the distribution of active tenant demand over the last 90 days:
- Retail/Storefront dominated market activity with 55.32% of all searches [9].
- Warehouse was the second most active sector at 39.58% [9].
- Office accounted for 5.09% of total search volume [9].
Office Market
Market Overview New Jersey's office market is actively correcting, with Northern New Jersey recording its first signs of positive absorption in 2025 as tenants upgrade to amenity-rich spaces [1].
- Vacancy & Availability: The vacancy rate in Northern New Jersey improved to 18.5%, an 80-basis-point decline year-over-year [1]. However, broader market availability remains elevated at 23.3% due to legacy Class B inventory [1].
- Net Absorption: The Northern NJ market posted positive net absorption of 324,502 SF in Q3 2025, positioning the region for a positive finish to the year [1].
- Rental Rates: Average asking rents have remained relatively flat at $28.61 per SF gross [3]. Class A assets continue to command stability, while Class B properties face downward pressure [3].
- Market Drivers: Leasing activity in Q3 slowed to 1.9 million SF, but high-quality assets captured 69% of this demand [1]. The lack of large-block transactions continues to weigh on overall velocity [2].
TenantBase Activity [9]
- Demand Share: Office accounted for 5.09% of total search volume [9].
- Lease Term Preference: Demand is concentrated in short-term commitments [9]:
- Less than one year: 31.25% of deals [9].
- 2-3 Years: 31.25% of deals [9].
- 3-5 Years: 18.75% of deals [9].
- Size Requirements: Tenants seeking shorter flexibility require slightly larger footprints than typical startup demand. The average lower SF required for a Less than one year term is 2,667 SF, compared to 2,017 SF for a 3-5 Years term [9].
Industrial & Warehouse Market
Market Overview The industrial sector has stabilized following a period of oversupply, with leasing velocity surging in Q3 2025 to catch up with available inventory [4, 5].
- Vacancy & Rent: The vacancy rate held steady at 7.2% after ten consecutive quarters of increases [4]. Average NNN asking rents hover between $13.87 and $15.36 per SF, stabilizing after a period of softening [5].
- Demand & Supply: Net absorption turned positive, reaching 1.3 million SF in Q3 2025, driven by 3PLs and logistics firms seeking Class A space [4]. Leasing activity surged 13% above the five-year quarterly average [4].
- Construction: The pipeline has moderated to 7.1 million SF, its second-lowest level since 2019, which will help tighten the market in 2026 [4].
TenantBase Activity [9]
- Demand Share: Warehouse accounted for 39.58% of total search volume [9].
- Lease Term Preference: Demand is balanced, with a plurality of tenants seeking mid-term leases [9]:
- 3-5 Years: 33.78% of deals [9].
- Less than one year: 17.57% of deals [9].
- 1-2 Years: 17.57% of deals [9].
- Size Requirements: The average lower SF required for a 3-5 Years term is 5,605 SF, while the 5+ Years term average requirement is 5,429 SF [9].
Retail Market
Market Overview Retail fundamentals in Northern and Central New Jersey remain exceptionally strong, characterized by limited availability and resilient consumer spending [6].
- Vacancy & Availability: The vacancy rate in Northern New Jersey stands at a tight 3.4% [6]. Hudson County recorded the lowest rate nationally for major submarkets at 1.7% [6].
- Net Absorption: While absorption dipped slightly negative in Q2, strong leasing from small-box operators (restaurants, personal care) has kept vacancy stable [6].
- Market Drivers: An affluent consumer base is driving demand for neighborhood centers, even as big-box expansion slows [6].
TenantBase Activity [9]
- Demand Share: Retail/Storefront activity dominated with 55.32% of all search volume [9].
- Lease Term Preference: Retail tenants show a clear preference for standard commercial terms [9]:
- 3-5 Years: 34.62% of deals [9].
- 1-2 Years: 20.51% of deals [9].
- 5+ Years: 17.95% of deals [9].
- Top Locations: Tenant interest is spread across key urban and suburban hubs (deal counts) [9]:
- Hackensack: 6 [9].
- Jersey City: 6 [9].
- Newark: 6 [9].
Multifamily Market
Market Overview The multifamily market is adjusting to a supply crest, with rent growth moderating as new luxury units compete for tenants [7].
- Vacancy & Occupancy: The vacancy rate in Northern New Jersey edged up to 5.6% as deliveries outpaced absorption [7]. Class A vacancy is notably higher at 10.7% due to the concentration of new supply [7].
- Rents: Rent growth has decelerated to 2.0% year-over-year, averaging roughly $2,253 per unit [7].
- Construction: Approximately 8,000 units are under construction, but starts have fallen sharply, signaling the end of the current supply boom [7].
- Investment: Sales volume rebounded to $856 million in Q3, driven by private capital targeting luxury assets [7].
2026 Outlook
Looking ahead to 2026, the New Jersey market is poised to shift from "resilience to optimism" [8].
- Office Evolution: Demand will largely concentrate in trophy assets and transit hubs, while obsolete suburban campuses will continue to face redevelopment pressure [1, 8].
- Industrial Tightening: With the construction pipeline shrinking, vacancy is expected to peak in mid-2026 before tightening again, renewing upward pressure on rents [4, 8].
- Investment Returns: Capital markets are thawing, with investors expected to aggressively target industrial and multifamily assets in supply-constrained submarkets [8].
Sources
- Newmark: Northern New Jersey Office Market Overview Q3 2025
- CBRE: New Jersey Office Figures Q3 2025
- Lee & Associates: Q3 2025 New Jersey Office Market Report
- CBRE: Northern and Central New Jersey Industrial Figures Q3 2025
- Avison Young: New Jersey Industrial Market Report Q3 2025
- Institutional Property Advisors: Northern New Jersey Retail Market Report Q3 2025
- Matthews: Northern New Jersey Multifamily Market Report Q3 2025
- Cushman & Wakefield: United States Outlook 2026
- TenantBase Proprietary Market Data (New Jersey - Last 90 Days)