Q3 2026
Q3 2026 Long Island Commercial Real Estate Market Report
Focus: Q3 2026 Market Trends
Executive Summary
Long Island office asking rents rose 3% year over year to $32.02/SF in Q3 2026, and sublease availability fell to its lowest level since before the pandemic. Industrial vacancy held at 7.0% with 1.78 million SF under construction, including Trader Joe's 881,000 SF distribution center in Islandia. Tenant demand on TenantBase shifted toward office in Q3: office space accounted for 39.1% of all Long Island tenant searches, up from 4.5% in Q2, while retail remained the largest category at 52.2%.
Sector Snapshot
- Office: Rents rising. Vacancy was 11.9%, with year-to-date absorption of positive 447,031 SF.
- Industrial: Stable. Vacancy held at 7.0%, with asking rent near $18.79/SF NNN.
- Retail: Tight. Vacancy is about 4.2%, with almost no new ground-up construction.
- Capital markets: Active. First-half 2026 sales reached $1.83 billion, up 21.2% year over year.
Long Island Tenant Demand Index
The TenantBase Tenant Demand Index tracks what businesses across Nassau and Suffolk counties are actively searching for on the TenantBase platform each quarter. Because it measures tenant intent before leases are signed, it shows where demand is heading ahead of traditional vacancy and absorption data.
Q3 2026 Search Share by Space Type (July 1 to September 30, 2026)
- Retail/Storefront: 52.2%
- Office: 39.1%
- Warehouse/Industrial: 8.7%
Three-Quarter Trend
- Retail/Storefront: 56.9% in Q1, 60.4% in Q2, 52.2% in Q3
- Office: 4.1% in Q1, 4.5% in Q2, 39.1% in Q3
- Warehouse/Industrial: 39.1% in Q1, 36.1% in Q2, 8.7% in Q3
Key Takeaways
- Office demand jumped from 4.5% to 39.1% of Long Island searches, its highest share of 2026.
- Office terms are evenly split. Q3 office searches divided equally among terms under one year, 2 to 3 years, and 3 to 5 years.
- Retail demand splits between short and long terms. 30.0% of Q3 retail searches sought terms under one year and another 30.0% sought 5+ years.
- Nassau County leads location interest. Central, Eastern, Northern, and Western Nassau were the most requested areas, followed by Central, Eastern, and Western Suffolk.
Office Market
Key Metrics (Q3 2026)
- Vacancy: 11.9%, with availability at 12.4%, down 100 basis points year over year (CBRE)
- Net absorption: negative 130,138 SF in Q3; positive 447,031 SF year to date (CBRE)
- Average asking rent: $32.02/SF, up 3% year over year, with Class A at $34.92/SF (CBRE)
- Sublease availability: 1.9%, the lowest since before the pandemic (CBRE)
- Submarkets: Western Nassau at 10.6% and $36.87/SF, Central and Eastern Nassau at 12.4%, and Western and Central Suffolk at 12.0% (CBRE)
- Notable leases: NFP renewed 65,000 SF in Plainview, and Gregory Spektor & Associates leased 28,000 SF in Lake Success, relocating from Queens (CBRE)
TenantBase Office Activity
Demand share: 39.1% of Long Island tenant searches, up from 4.5% in Q2 and 4.1% in Q1.
Lease term preferences:
- Less than one year: 33.3%
- 2 to 3 years: 33.3%
- 3 to 5 years: 33.3%
Space requirements by term:
- Less than one year: 2,750 to 5,500 SF
- 2 to 3 years: 500 to 1,000 SF
- 3 to 5 years: 1,000 to 2,500 SF
TenantBase data vs. the market: Nassau County, where most TenantBase searches are concentrated, carries the island's highest office rents, led by Western Nassau at $36.87/SF. Tenants open to Central Suffolk, at $26.76/SF, can save roughly $10/SF.
Industrial & Warehouse Market
Key Metrics (Q3 2026)
- Vacancy: 7.0%, flat quarter over quarter and year over year (CBRE)
- Net absorption: positive 66,000 SF in Q3 and 715,000 SF year to date (CBRE)
- Average asking rent: $18.79/SF NNN, down 2.0% year over year (CBRE)
- Under construction: 1.78 million SF, including Trader Joe's 881,000 SF distribution center in Islandia (CBRE)
- Submarkets: Western Nassau at 5.0%, Western Suffolk at 6.0%, Eastern Nassau at 6.5%, Eastern Suffolk at 7.5%, and Central Suffolk at 8.2% (CBRE)
- Notable leases: Midnite Snax, 117,000 SF in Bethpage, and Veritiv, 107,000 SF in Islandia (CBRE)
TenantBase Industrial Activity
Demand share: 8.7% of Long Island tenant searches, down from 36.1% in Q2 and 39.1% in Q1.
Space requirements: Q3 industrial searches sought 1 to 3 year terms, with 2 to 3 year searches averaging 2,500 to 10,000 SF.
TenantBase data vs. the market: Small industrial users will find the tightest conditions in Western Nassau at 5.0% and the most options in Central Suffolk at 8.2%.
Retail Market
Key Metrics (2026)
- Vacancy: about 4.2%, with asking rents up about 9% year over year (Schuckman Realty)
- Submarkets: Nassau North Shore grocery-anchored vacancy under 3%, Nassau South Shore at 4% to 5%, and Central Suffolk at 5% to 6% (Schuckman Realty)
- Sales: $420.4 million in retail investment sales across 120 deals in the first half of 2026 (Cushman & Wakefield)
TenantBase Retail Activity
Demand share: 52.2% of Long Island tenant searches, the largest category for the third straight quarter.
Lease term preferences:
- Less than one year: 30.0%
- 5+ years: 30.0%
- 1 to 2 years: 20.0%
- 3 to 5 years: 20.0%
Space requirements: 5+ year retail searches averaged 1,750 to 3,750 SF.
TenantBase data vs. the market: With North Shore vacancy under 3% and rents rising, Nassau retail tenants should expect competition and begin their search early. Central Suffolk offers the most availability.
Capital Markets
Long Island investment sales totaled $1.83 billion in the first half of 2026, up 21.2% year over year, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Suffolk accounted for $1.16 billion, and office sales nearly doubled to $383.6 million.
Q4 2026 Outlook
- Office: Expect rents to keep rising as sublease space shrinks.
- Industrial: Expect vacancy near 7% as new build-to-suit and speculative projects deliver in Suffolk.
- Retail: Expect vacancy to stay near 4% with little new construction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What type of commercial space are Long Island tenants searching for in 2026?
In Q3 2026, retail/storefront space made up 52.2% of Long Island tenant searches on TenantBase and office made up 39.1%. Office share rose from 4.5% in Q2.
Which Long Island areas are tenants searching most?
Central, Eastern, Northern, and Western Nassau County were the most requested areas on TenantBase in Q3 2026, followed by Suffolk County.
What is the office vacancy rate on Long Island?
Long Island office vacancy was 11.9% in Q3 2026, with asking rents up 3% year over year to $32.02/SF, according to CBRE.
What is the industrial vacancy rate on Long Island?
Long Island industrial vacancy was 7.0% in Q3 2026, according to CBRE.
How can I find commercial space on Long Island at no cost?
TenantBase matches business tenants with vetted independent tenant rep brokers across Nassau and Suffolk counties at no cost to the tenant. Brokers are compensated by the landlord. Get started with TenantBase.
Sources
- TenantBase proprietary search data, Long Island, July 1 to September 30, 2026
- TenantBase, Long Island Commercial Real Estate Market Report, Q2 2026
- TenantBase, Long Island Commercial Real Estate Market Report, Q1 2026
- CBRE, Long Island Office Figures, Q3 2026
- CBRE, Long Island Industrial Figures, Q3 2026
- Schuckman Realty, Nassau and Suffolk Retail, 2026
- Cushman & Wakefield, Long Island Capital Markets, H1 2026
Disclaimer
Information in this report is aggregated from third-party sources and TenantBase proprietary platform data, and was synthesized with the assistance of AI. Market metrics reflect the most recent published data available at the time of writing. TenantBase search data reflects tenant activity on the TenantBase platform and is not a measure of total market leasing. All figures should be independently verified before making real estate decisions.