CRE Market Report: August 2026 | Tampa, FL Market Spotlight

The July 29 decision: The Committee voted 9 to 3 to maintain the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, a fifth consecutive hold and the lowest level since November 2022. Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas each preferred a quarter-point increase. It was the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers dissented with a unified view on direction.^1,2,3

A different communication regime: July was Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair, and the statement was materially shorter than what had become the norm. Warsh has expressed disdain for the practice of offering forward guidance and has described inflation as "a choice." The Committee's statement attributed elevated inflation in part to supply shocks in certain sectors, including energy.^1,2

What is priced in: The June dot plot put officials' year-end projections between 3.6% and 4.1%, and the full committee penciled in one quarter-point increase by the end of 2026. Market pricing has been more aggressive, at points implying two quarter-point hikes this year.^2,3

The curve responded by steepening: On the day of the decision the 10-year Treasury rose 5 basis points to 4.657% and the 30-year gained more than 9 basis points to 5.193%, while the 2-year fell 4 basis points to 4.236%. For borrowers pricing long-term fixed debt, the long end is where the pressure sits. Warsh speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium this month, and the next decision lands September 15 to 16.^3,4

Headline rate eased: The Trepp CMBS delinquency rate fell 20 basis points to 7.35% in June 2026, driven largely by the cure of a large Florida hotel portfolio loan. Lodging posted the biggest decline, down 79 basis points to 5.22%.⁷

The maturity overhang is widening: Including loans past their maturity date but current on interest, the rate reaches 9.53%, up 36 basis points from May and 218 basis points above the headline figure. Non-performing matured balloon loans accounted for 65% of newly delinquent balances in June.⁷

Stress is concentrated, not systemic: MBA data for the first quarter put overall commercial mortgage delinquency at 4.02%, up from 3.86%. Within that, CMBS ran at 5.21% of balances 30 or more days delinquent, while life company loans sat at 1.47%, GSE loans at 0.97%, and FHA multifamily and healthcare loans at 0.96%. The distress is a capital-structure problem far more than a broad borrower problem.⁸

Record rents, a pipeline at a standstill: Newmark put Tampa office asking rents at an all-time high of $30.30/SF in Q1 2026, up 5.6% year over year and the fastest annual pace since Q2 2021, with vacancy at 14.5%. Only 137,338 SF was under construction, about 0.2% of inventory, with no new groundbreakings for a fourth consecutive quarter.¹²

Inventory is leaving the market: Across the wider Tampa Bay region, overall vacancy fell to 18.2% in Q1, down 110 basis points year over year and the lowest since the end of 2021, helped by more than 1 million square feet of office space removed over the prior year through redevelopment and conversion. Downtown Tampa and St. Petersburg both sit below 10%.¹³

The vacancy is concentrated: JLL found that 20% of office buildings account for more than 70% of the region's vacant space, while roughly 35% have no vacancy at all. Financial services drove 26% of leasing between 2021 and 2025, followed by professional and business services at 23% and health care at 15%.¹⁴

Q2 capital activity: Avison Young reported the market continuing to stabilize, with leasing moderating after several quarters of large commitments. The St. Petersburg CBD is now the region's priciest submarket at a $46.30 full-service asking rate. The quarter's headline trade was the $94 million sale of 400 N. Ashley Drive, within $131.7 million of aggregate office sales volume.¹¹

Flat vacancy, record rents: Tampa Bay industrial vacancy held at 7.4% in Q2 2026, unchanged quarter over quarter and 30 basis points higher year over year. Lakeland accounted for the majority of leasing volume with nearly 603,000 SF signed.¹⁰

Supply is thinning fast: Newmark recorded 419,690 SF of Q1 occupancy gains, led by Primo Brands' 290,966 SF move-in in the E Hillsborough/Plant City submarket, with asking rents up 5.1% year over year to a record $9.14/SF. The under-construction pipeline fell 18.9% year over year to 4.8 million SF, the lowest quarterly level since Q4 2021, and what remains is 29.3% preleased.¹²

The tightest segment in the market: Tampa Bay retail availability remained limited through Q2, with vacancy inching up 30 basis points year over year to 3.8%, still well inside the 6.0% national average.¹⁰ For a retail tenant, the practical constraint in Tampa is finding inventory at all rather than negotiating on price. Nationally, necessity-based and experiential retail continue to hold occupancy, with grocery-anchored centers posting strong tenant retention.¹⁸

Capital is queued up: Tampa's multifamily investment market held strong through Q2, with five-year total sales volume reaching $15.0 billion, the second-highest in Florida behind Orlando.¹⁰ CBRE's Denny St. Romain describes the metro as positioned for a supply-driven recovery, pointing to in-migration, diminishing new deliveries, and homeownership affordability pressure.⁶

Downtown's tallest: ONE Tampa reached full height this month at 42 stories, the tallest residential tower in the market. Kolter Urban originally designed a 55-story building but redesigned it after the FAA and the Hillsborough County Aviation Authority imposed height restrictions tied to flight paths into Tampa International. The tower has risen roughly one floor per week since work began in August 2024.¹⁶

Prime 6.750%  ·  30-Day SOFR 3.63%  ·  5-Year Treasury 4.380%  ·  10-Year Treasury 4.680%  ·  10-Year Swap 4.280%¹⁷

The policy calendar: Jackson Hole this month is the first real read on how Warsh intends to communicate, and the September 15 to 16 meeting is the next decision point. A single strong inflation print in either direction moves the debate.⁴

Capital markets are functioning: JLL described exceptionally strong debt markets and ample capital available to deploy through Q2, with asset pricing broadly stable even as bond yields rose. That is a meaningfully different backdrop from 2024, when the constraint was liquidity rather than price.⁹

What it means for Tampa tenants: Four consecutive quarters without an office groundbreaking, an industrial pipeline at a four-year low, and retail vacancy under 4% all point the same direction. Tenants with 2027 and 2028 expirations have more leverage today than they are likely to have at renewal, particularly for larger contiguous blocks. Nationally, CommercialCafe placed Tampa among the highest-occupancy office markets in the South in June, below the national vacancy average.¹⁵